Perhaps Kogi, not Kwara is the real bellwether in Nigeria’s elections

‘Twas the night before the 2023 presidential election, when all through the country

Everybody was stirring, even the mice

What’s happening in Nigeria is the exact opposite of the hush before Christmas. There are rumours, and rumours of rumours. There is a certain amount of nervous excitement for what lies ahead.

Our friends at Stears have continued their good work, following the mantra of data being regius maximus. Joachim MacEbong’s piece on Kwara this morning gave great insight into the importance of Kwara state as a predictor of where the election might go. He argues that Stears’s polling in the State of Harmony points to a Bola Tinubu and APC victory. 

This may well be. The reasons are mainly to do with Kwara’s place in the Middle Belt. The broader North Central is ethnically and religiously diverse, the region where Nigeria’s largely Muslim North meets its largely Christian South. The italics are to emphasise the complexity of Nigeria’s demographics. 

There is however a neighbouring state screaming, “hello, am I invisible?” That would be Kogi, the aptly named Confluence State. It is the confluence of the great rivers of the Niger and the Benue, but also a confluence of Nigeria’s religious and ethnic melange.

Kwara is largely Muslim and largely Yoruba, so perhaps not the best reflection of the greater Nigeria. Kogi on the other hand, is almost evenly split between Christians and Muslims with a possible slight edge for Muslims. It is also not dominated by any of Nigeria’s most populous ethnic groups. 

Kogi and Kwara would be termed as bellwether states, in that every winning candidate since 1999 has had to win both of them (discounting the supremely dodgy elections of 2007). The people of Kogi and Kwara know how to spot a winner.

But in terms of being close to the national trend, 54.87% of votes in Kogi went to President Buhari and APC in the 2019 election. This was within one percentage point of Buhari’s overall tally of 55.60%. 

		APC		PDP
	votes	%	votes	%
Kogi	285,894	54.87%	218,207	41.88%
Overall	15,191,847	55.60%	11,262,978	41.22%

Source: INEC

Only Sokoto state was closer with 56.24%, but I don’t think anybody would reasonably describe the Seat of the Caliphate as a mini Nigeria.

This could be the election where both Kwara and Kogi fail to vote the way of the rest of the country. The three horse race has thrown a spanner in the predictive works.

That said, the results in Kogi could be indicative or wider trends around the country. Will the support for both APC and PDP fall? And if they do swing to Peter Obi’s Labour Party, by how much? This would provide some kind of basis for what would happen in other parts of the country. 

Speak softly Kogites, for Nigerians are listening.