The final list of candidates approved for the 2023 presidential election, as published by INEC, has 18 candidates with three true contenders that are Tinubu Bola Ahmed of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Obi Peter Gregory of the Labour Party (LP) and Abubakar Atiku who represents the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) is a factor in the coming elections, but he is not a real contender.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has released the final list of 93.4 million eligible voters that shows that there are 12,298,932 newly registered voters eligible to vote in the 2023 general elections and the North-West with its seven states (Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara), has 22,672,373 eligible voters while the South-West region with Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Osun, and Ekiti is next with a total of 18,332,191 voters.
The North-West is the region with the highest number of states (7) and local government areas (186), making it the zone with the highest number of states and LGAs in Nigeria, and the APC’s dominance in the region has helped it win two presidential elections in a row, but now the factor that made the Northwest beneficial to the ruling APC might be turning what a path to victory into a path to failure was.
Muhammadu Buhari won 56% of the vote in 2019 with 15.2 million votes and victories in 19 states that, included number-heavy Kano and Lagos. The current APC candidate, Bola Tinubu, hoped to work that same play and get a similar voting outcome. But the problem is that Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not Muhammadu Buhari. He is not the Northern ethnic icon that Buhari was to be guaranteed a couple of million votes in the North alone, regardless of the party vehicle being used. Bola Tinubu is at the moment struggling to get full acceptance in his state and region, where a good number of dissatisfied South-West and other Southern voters are inclined to vote for his rivals instead.
A good number of the Northern voters are showing support for the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, and Tinubu himself is complaining and accusing elements in the presidency of subtly working for the opposition candidate.
Buhari won in Bauchi, Borno, Ekiti, Jigawa, Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nassarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara. Tinubu is likely to win the Southwest states, but he is also likely to lose at least half of the northern states Buhari won while making no gains whatsoever in the South-South and Southeast.
The entrance of former Anambra governor and erstwhile PDP vice-presidential candidate Peter Gregory Obi into the race on the Labour Party platform has injected energy and youth involvement into the race and it is expected that his run would at least encourage politicians to do more to build a reputation for probity and performance to enhance their chances in future elections.
To win the presidency, Peter Obi must have the most votes and also get a fourth of the vote in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and the capital. Can he do it? Yes. Will it be difficult? Yes. Is it slightly unlikely? Yes, but there is a chance that he can do it. The demand for a competent, trustworthy Southern candidate to take over from the incumbent has collided with his excellent reputation and birthed a serious campaign, and that helps him.
Peter Obi is guaranteed to win the Southeast and have strong results in the parts of the South-South. His appeal to young Nigerians in other regions and the sizeable Igbo communities in other regions, especially the Southwest, particularly Lagos means that there is a chance he could outdo Bola Tinubu in one or two Southwest states and some Northcentral states. His Labour Party has taken away some strongholds from the PDP but apart from Lagos, it is unlikely to make inroads into any other APC’s strongholds in the Northeast and the Northwest.
The Northcentral region is where he has the opportunity to go from being a noteworthy also-ran to an actual winner. If the significant Christian communities in states like Benue, Plateau and Taraba turn out for him in large numbers, then he can win.
Peter Obi can win but would need the Northcentral’s support while hoping that Tinubu, Kwakwanso, and Atiku could share the Northeast and Northwest regions in ways that deny each of them of any significant advantage.
As for the PDP, this has been a challenging campaign. The PDP has had pushback from significant portions of its Southeast and overall Southern support following its decision to present a Northern candidate for the presidential elections. This eventually led to the breakaway that is the Labour Party presidential campaign of Peter Obi and the loss of its Southeast stronghold.
In the 2019 presidential election, the PDP won in Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, FCT, Imo, Ondo, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Taraba but has lost the Southeast states and has a hard fight ahead in parts of the South-South and the Northcentral regions. So the PDP has an uphill battle to win, but some factors are working in its favour that could help it win the elections.
Over the past 12 years, the PDP has struggled in the vote-heavy North, and in 2019, only four of the 17 states it won were in the North. Two were in the Northcentral (Benue and Plateau), and two were in the Northeast (Adamawa and Taraba). But the absence of Buhari or another northern candidate has opened up possible voting blocs to Atiku and the PDP that could make up for the loss of votes from the SE and elsewhere.
Atiku got over 11 million votes in the last election, and his seeming popularity in the North has been strong enough for the ruling party candidate to complain that he is being supported by the Presidency. This means that the Northwest and the Northeast could go to Atiku if the North adopts him as a regional candidate in the same way Tinubu has positioned himself as the Yoruba candidate.
The Northwest alone has over 22 million voters, and the PDP expects to win in the South-South and the Northcentral.
The Northcentral has a sizable Christian population that the Labour Party hopes to win to its side, but this is where age-old relationships might hold sway over new emotions. The Northcentral is much more connected to the North than the Southeast, which is the foundation of the Labour Party’s candidate.
In Taraba for example, the most commonly spoken language is Hausa and Atiku has positioned for years as a moderate progressive Northerner such that the Northcentral might find is more convenient to build its way forward with him. A comparable situation applies to the South-South. The South-South does not have the dissatisfaction that the Southeast has with the PDP. It has had a PDP president. It has influence within the PDP and may not have a clear idea of its future if it abandons those relationships to bond with the Southeast, especially given the long-term history of the relationship between the neighbouring regions.
The truth is presidential elections in Nigeria are partly a work that bonds communities together to chase certain corporate goals. The Southeast partnered with some Northern groups from 1999-2015 for certain reasons. The 2015 election was shaped by the alliance between the North and the Southwest. It is never just about the candidates themselves. It is also about how the regions and states plan to work with other regions. This is why the South-South and Middle-Belt are likely to sympathise with the Southeast and overall Southern discontent but could also take what appears to be the pragmatic step for its regional benefit and vote for the PDP. Considering these factors, it looks like whatever the outcome, it is time up for the APC.
Cheta Nwanze is the Lead Partner at SBMIntelligence and heads the research desk. He has worked in numerous Information Technology and Media organisations, key among them are the Daily Times of Nigeria, where he was managing editor for a while, and the defunct 234NEXT.
Cheta is passionate about writing and has published numerous articles in Sunday Telegraph, Premium Times, the Cable, and Financial Nigeria, all in Nigeria. His opinion pieces have been published in the Africa Report, Africa Is A Country, Al-Jazeera, The Guardian (UK) and SuperSport (South Africa). He tweets regularly at @Chxta.